LATEST UPDATE: Weird succession theory
Tunde Bakare, presiding Pastor of the Latter Rain Assembly and convener of the Save Nigeria Group, has stepped out again. He likes to stir the nation with prophecies and predictions. A radical and angry cleric, Bakare takes liberties with clairvoyance. He likes to peep into the future.
During the Obasanjo presidency, for instance, Bakare scared those who listened to him out of proportion. He told a stunned Nigeria shortly after the 1999 general elections that Obasanjo, who had just been declared president-elect, would be assassinated before he would be sworn in on May 29 that year. That, of course, did not come to pass. But the prophet, even if you called him a false one, was not embarrassed or bothered. He was also not deterred. He continued with his fiery predictions. It was, therefore, little wonder that he was, three years later, arrested for preaching sermons that were very critical of the then president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
For a cleric, who takes delight in lampooning politicians, it was thought that Bakare would shun politics like a plague. But he has since jumped into the political fray. In 2011, he was presidential running mate to Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.) on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). The quest hit the rocks and Bakare had to retreat momentarily from open partisanship. But he continued in other ways. Not too long ago, he mobilised Nigerians against the Jonathan presidency under the cover of Save Nigeria Group. By so doing, whatever he lost by not taking over the reins of governance with Buhari, he made up with his street activism. That restless preoccupation obviously diverted his attention from his accustomed prophecy.
But it would appear that the man’s prophetic instinct has been reignited. His just concluded 60th birthday celebrations must have provided the lever. He returned to Obasanjo again and made some scathing comments about him. He accused the former president of stifling students unionism during his time. He was also reported to have said Obasanjo asked Buhari to drop him, as running mate as a condition for his (Obasanjo’s) support for Buhari. These comments may be irritating to Obasanjo. But the former president appears not to care a hoot any more about Bakare and his criticisms.
But if Bakare’s focus on Obasanjo has become sterile, you can hardly say the same thing about his interventions on the Jonathan presidency. Now, he has moved away from mere criticism and has joined the clan of scare-mongers. In his latest effort at saving Nigeria from itself, Bakare has called for the postponement of the 2015 general elections, as a way of staving off the crisis that would rock the nation after the polls. In place of the elections, Bakare said we should put in place a two-year transition government that would adopt the report of the just concluded National Conference. In his opinion, the present state of security in the country calls for postponement of the elections. The transition government, he said, will pilot the country out of the prevailing chaos in the country. Having succeeded in doing that, the government would then hold elections on a future date.
Bakare, in making his call, also took cognizance of the political hostility, raging between the North and South of the country over the 2015 elections, which he considers as a make or mar poll. He is not sure that the people of Nigeria are prepared for the violent reactions that would ensue whether the elections go South or North. He has, therefore, used his position as a watchman and servant of God to warn the nation ahead of impending danger.
This is, indeed, a serious warning coming from a man of God. It is, when considered closely, capable of raising concerns that can cause panic and apprehension.
Regardless of the fear that Bakare’s position is capable of engendering in the citizenry, it will not be out of place to assume that Bakare probably meant well. However, as a man of God, my expectation is that Bakare should approach national issues differently. Rather than fly off the handle as he has done, the better thing for him to do should have been to watch and pray in order to stave off the danger he alluded to. Unfortunately, rather than do that, he has chosen the path of scare-mongering, which the likes of Sheik Gumi had toed earlier.
In fact, Bakare made a lot of exaggerated assumptions, which he must be weaned of.
I find the idea of postponement of the elections and installing a transition government poorly thought out. My reason goes thus: Postponement of the elections is a clear recipe for confusion. It is suggestive of failure on the part of government of the day. The story it will tell is that the present government has failed to manage the affairs of Nigeria and, therefore, needs assistance from a new set of Nigerians. If this is what Bakare assumes, he may just be saying what some other Nigerians, who do not have confidence in the Jonathan administration have been saying. But the difference between Bakare and some of the critics of the government is that whereas the critics want an election in which they believe that Jonathan would be shown the way out through the ballot box, Bakare wants a new set of Nigerians to take over from Jonathan without an election.
This suggestion is certainly not workable. In pondering it, we cannot but raise a number of questions. How will the transition team be assembled? Who will assemble it? How will the present administration wind up without an election and a proper transition? These questions may sound simple but they are complex to deal with. No government ever dismisses itself from office. Bakare’s panacea can only work when there is a forceful takeover of government. Since he is not advocating that, then he should consider creative ways out of the country’s present quagmire. There is no solution in the solution he has proffered.
In pondering Bakare’s theory of succession, we must not lose sight of our recent experience with transition government. Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (rtd.) tried his hands on it when he boxed himself into a tight corner over his endless transition programme. When he had exhausted all possible excuses about the lingering transition, he hastily cobbled together an interim government. The contraption collapsed like a pack of cards within three months. The military coup that came with it set the country back in so many ways. Is this what Bakare is advocating? The man of God needs to seek more understanding in this matter. In fact, his worries and the concerns he expressed will largely be taken care of if he relies on godly wisdom. If he does, he will discover that the transition government he is asking for will not have the magic wand to take Nigeria out of the present crisis of insecurity. Whatever challenge the government of the day is having will also be the lot of an incoming government. It will even be worse in the case of a government that is not elected by anyone. What gives Bakare the impression that Nigerians, who have been yearning for democracy, will willingly submit to an illegitimate government?
Bakare did not help matters when he suggested that the transition government would have the responsibility of implementing the report of the National Conference. This suggestion is not realistic. It assumes that the government that set up that conference has thrown its recommendations over board. But is this really the case? I know it is not. I believe that the Jonathan administration will certainly return to the conference report once it is through with the elections. It does not make sense to expect the government to take on two divisive national issues at the same time.
Bakare should have known also that once the report of the conference passes into a new hand, we should consider it dead. No new administration in this country will implement the report of a conference that is not set up by it. I know that Pastor Bakare knows this. That he chose to gloss over this patent reality about Nigeria is what I do not understand.
I also find it simplistic for Bakare to worry about what he sees as the growing hostility between the north and south of the country over 2015 elections. It is rather cheap to dwell on this. The hostility between the north and south of the country over elections is part of the reality of the Nigerian situation. It has been with us since independence. In spite of the headache that comes with it, Nigeria has managed to stay afloat. Anybody who is imagining that the present hostility is serious enough to alter the present state of Nigeria is engaging in mental flights. I invite the person to face reality.
And contrary to what the naysayers are saying, the 2015 election is not going to be a make or mar poll. It will come and go just like the ones before it. There will be winners. And there will be losers. No one will pull down this country on account of his loss. All the threat that are flying about now are merely meant to scare those who do not understand Nigeria. The rest of us are already accustomed to such public shows.
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Tunde Bakare, presiding Pastor of the Latter Rain Assembly and convener of the Save Nigeria Group, has stepped out again. He likes to stir the nation with prophecies and predictions. A radical and angry cleric, Bakare takes liberties with clairvoyance. He likes to peep into the future.
During the Obasanjo presidency, for instance, Bakare scared those who listened to him out of proportion. He told a stunned Nigeria shortly after the 1999 general elections that Obasanjo, who had just been declared president-elect, would be assassinated before he would be sworn in on May 29 that year. That, of course, did not come to pass. But the prophet, even if you called him a false one, was not embarrassed or bothered. He was also not deterred. He continued with his fiery predictions. It was, therefore, little wonder that he was, three years later, arrested for preaching sermons that were very critical of the then president, Olusegun Obasanjo.
For a cleric, who takes delight in lampooning politicians, it was thought that Bakare would shun politics like a plague. But he has since jumped into the political fray. In 2011, he was presidential running mate to Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.) on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). The quest hit the rocks and Bakare had to retreat momentarily from open partisanship. But he continued in other ways. Not too long ago, he mobilised Nigerians against the Jonathan presidency under the cover of Save Nigeria Group. By so doing, whatever he lost by not taking over the reins of governance with Buhari, he made up with his street activism. That restless preoccupation obviously diverted his attention from his accustomed prophecy.
But it would appear that the man’s prophetic instinct has been reignited. His just concluded 60th birthday celebrations must have provided the lever. He returned to Obasanjo again and made some scathing comments about him. He accused the former president of stifling students unionism during his time. He was also reported to have said Obasanjo asked Buhari to drop him, as running mate as a condition for his (Obasanjo’s) support for Buhari. These comments may be irritating to Obasanjo. But the former president appears not to care a hoot any more about Bakare and his criticisms.
But if Bakare’s focus on Obasanjo has become sterile, you can hardly say the same thing about his interventions on the Jonathan presidency. Now, he has moved away from mere criticism and has joined the clan of scare-mongers. In his latest effort at saving Nigeria from itself, Bakare has called for the postponement of the 2015 general elections, as a way of staving off the crisis that would rock the nation after the polls. In place of the elections, Bakare said we should put in place a two-year transition government that would adopt the report of the just concluded National Conference. In his opinion, the present state of security in the country calls for postponement of the elections. The transition government, he said, will pilot the country out of the prevailing chaos in the country. Having succeeded in doing that, the government would then hold elections on a future date.
Bakare, in making his call, also took cognizance of the political hostility, raging between the North and South of the country over the 2015 elections, which he considers as a make or mar poll. He is not sure that the people of Nigeria are prepared for the violent reactions that would ensue whether the elections go South or North. He has, therefore, used his position as a watchman and servant of God to warn the nation ahead of impending danger.
This is, indeed, a serious warning coming from a man of God. It is, when considered closely, capable of raising concerns that can cause panic and apprehension.
Regardless of the fear that Bakare’s position is capable of engendering in the citizenry, it will not be out of place to assume that Bakare probably meant well. However, as a man of God, my expectation is that Bakare should approach national issues differently. Rather than fly off the handle as he has done, the better thing for him to do should have been to watch and pray in order to stave off the danger he alluded to. Unfortunately, rather than do that, he has chosen the path of scare-mongering, which the likes of Sheik Gumi had toed earlier.
In fact, Bakare made a lot of exaggerated assumptions, which he must be weaned of.
I find the idea of postponement of the elections and installing a transition government poorly thought out. My reason goes thus: Postponement of the elections is a clear recipe for confusion. It is suggestive of failure on the part of government of the day. The story it will tell is that the present government has failed to manage the affairs of Nigeria and, therefore, needs assistance from a new set of Nigerians. If this is what Bakare assumes, he may just be saying what some other Nigerians, who do not have confidence in the Jonathan administration have been saying. But the difference between Bakare and some of the critics of the government is that whereas the critics want an election in which they believe that Jonathan would be shown the way out through the ballot box, Bakare wants a new set of Nigerians to take over from Jonathan without an election.
This suggestion is certainly not workable. In pondering it, we cannot but raise a number of questions. How will the transition team be assembled? Who will assemble it? How will the present administration wind up without an election and a proper transition? These questions may sound simple but they are complex to deal with. No government ever dismisses itself from office. Bakare’s panacea can only work when there is a forceful takeover of government. Since he is not advocating that, then he should consider creative ways out of the country’s present quagmire. There is no solution in the solution he has proffered.
In pondering Bakare’s theory of succession, we must not lose sight of our recent experience with transition government. Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (rtd.) tried his hands on it when he boxed himself into a tight corner over his endless transition programme. When he had exhausted all possible excuses about the lingering transition, he hastily cobbled together an interim government. The contraption collapsed like a pack of cards within three months. The military coup that came with it set the country back in so many ways. Is this what Bakare is advocating? The man of God needs to seek more understanding in this matter. In fact, his worries and the concerns he expressed will largely be taken care of if he relies on godly wisdom. If he does, he will discover that the transition government he is asking for will not have the magic wand to take Nigeria out of the present crisis of insecurity. Whatever challenge the government of the day is having will also be the lot of an incoming government. It will even be worse in the case of a government that is not elected by anyone. What gives Bakare the impression that Nigerians, who have been yearning for democracy, will willingly submit to an illegitimate government?
Bakare did not help matters when he suggested that the transition government would have the responsibility of implementing the report of the National Conference. This suggestion is not realistic. It assumes that the government that set up that conference has thrown its recommendations over board. But is this really the case? I know it is not. I believe that the Jonathan administration will certainly return to the conference report once it is through with the elections. It does not make sense to expect the government to take on two divisive national issues at the same time.
Bakare should have known also that once the report of the conference passes into a new hand, we should consider it dead. No new administration in this country will implement the report of a conference that is not set up by it. I know that Pastor Bakare knows this. That he chose to gloss over this patent reality about Nigeria is what I do not understand.
I also find it simplistic for Bakare to worry about what he sees as the growing hostility between the north and south of the country over 2015 elections. It is rather cheap to dwell on this. The hostility between the north and south of the country over elections is part of the reality of the Nigerian situation. It has been with us since independence. In spite of the headache that comes with it, Nigeria has managed to stay afloat. Anybody who is imagining that the present hostility is serious enough to alter the present state of Nigeria is engaging in mental flights. I invite the person to face reality.
And contrary to what the naysayers are saying, the 2015 election is not going to be a make or mar poll. It will come and go just like the ones before it. There will be winners. And there will be losers. No one will pull down this country on account of his loss. All the threat that are flying about now are merely meant to scare those who do not understand Nigeria. The rest of us are already accustomed to such public shows.
Thanks for Reading The LATEST UPDATE: Weird succession theory
SHARE WITH FRIENDS
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